Four Months to Go

Strange though it may seem, given that we're still a few days shy of August, tomorrow sees the start of England's final Test series before this winter's Ashes. Though Alec Stewart was right to call for a focus on the opponents in hand when he surveyed England's prospects against Pakistan, thoughts will inevitably -- given the English sporting media's tendency towards future-focused hype; see coverage of London 2012, f'rinstance -- be turned at least partially Brisbane-wards.

I'm willing to be proved wrong (or, indeed, argued against) here, but I reckon Messrs Cook, Strauss, Pietersen, Collingwood, Broad, Swann, and Anderson are -- barring injury -- guaranteed a place in the starting XI come the 25th of November. So who has something to prove?

Jonathan Trott

He can't dine out on that Ashes-winning century for ever; the rest of the world have since figured out his mental frailties, and Bollinger, Johnson and co. aren't likely to cut him any slack.

Prediction: in the XI at 3/4.

Ian Bell

Ok, so the Australians aren't going to lose any sleep over seeing his name on the team-sheet, but he's still England's best option to join Paul Collingwood and steady the ship and the middle order, and he's also their most technically gifted batsman of his generation. There, I said it. Shoot me.

Prediction: in the XI at 6.

Eoin Morgan

The selectors have taken a commendable gamble on Morgan's ability to adapt to Test cricket. Could still stake a place in the XI, but barring an injury to Bell I think he'll be carrying the drinks.

Prediction: in the squad.

Ravi Bopara

Behind Trott, Bell, and Morgan in the pecking order, but should get a place in the squad if he can continue his sparkling recent county form.

Prediction: in the squad.

Owais Shah

Look, some batsmen -- Nick Knight springs to mind -- are fated to base their international careers on the shorter form of the game, and their Test careers never really get going. Can Shah be once and for all consigned to that pile, please?

Prediction: a white Christmas.

Luke Wright

No, he will never be Botham; no, England don't automatically need an all-rounder (newsflash: Flintoff wasn't all that, for much of his career); yes, it's time to let him go.

Prediction: walking in a winter wonderland.

Matt Prior

His glovework has improved immeasurably, but his batting appears to have gone backwards. He's lucky Craig Kieswetter's 'keeping is nowhere near 5-day standard, yet, or he could be pushed out of the Test team as well as the shorter formats.

Prediction: in the XI.

Craig Kieswetter

Unlikely to get a chance in this series to prove that he can compete with Prior behind the stumps. Will go to Australia as back-up, if needed.

Prediction: in the squad.

Steve Finn

We have Broad and Swann at first and second changes for control; what we need from an opening partnership -- and I'm assuming Anderson will be asked to 'lead the attack' -- is, frankly, a bit of aggression. Steve Finn -- all 6'7" of him -- provides just that. He may not yet have the stifling accuracy of his idol McGrath, but on Australian pitches his pace and bounce may just be able to trouble Pigeon's old team-mates.

Prediction: in the XI.

Ajmal Shahzad

His performance in the last Test showed enough promise to suggest he'll make an excellent replacement bowler should Broad/Anderson/Finn break down.

Prediction: in the squad.

James Tredwell

England's second-choice Test spinner goes as cover for Swann.

Prediction: in the squad.

Tim Bresnan

Just about scrapes in, for his batting as well as his bowling. I know, I know, in a 4-man attack -- please, England, please -- you don't need that much of a contribution, runs-wise . . . but it just adds a bit of confidence to have someone who can do a bit of willow-wielding down the order.

Prediction: in the squad.

Ryan Sidebottom & Graham Onions

Thanks for the memories, guys, but with the current unexpected crop of young seamers neither of you should get much of a look-in. Injuries suck.

Prediction: watching on tv.

So that gives a 17-man squad -- the 1st XI, 2 back-up batsmen, a 'keeper, a spinner, and 2 seamers -- of: Strauss (c), Anderson, Bell, Bresnan, Bopara, Broad, Collingwood, Cook, Finn, Kieswetter, Morgan, Pietersen, Prior, Shahzad, Swann, Tredwell, Trott.

Now bring on the injuries.